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Bid Daddy's 2022 Swan Song (NCAAF 22 Bowl Mania Analysis, Sharp Picks & Locks)

Updated: Jan 8



Bowl Mania is finally upon us and with this comes Daddy's swan song. This week's article is nothing but an amalgamation of various sites, sharps and podcasts. A one-stop shop for all information to win your bowl brackets so that you don't have to spend hours combing through sites for bits of info.


Feel free to share it with the Priest you see once a year on Christmas Day or the store clerk who will ring up another candle for your Mom that you purchase on Christmas Eve once you've finally accepted you have no more time to procrastinate.


Yours in creating the greatest swan song performance since National Champ Joe Burrow.

Big Daddy / Fat Curry

#ESKETIT


CFB Bowl Pick Ems:

CFB Championship Picks:

Lock of the Bowls ("LOB"): Penn State vs. Utah; Penn State +2.5 (-115), 7 units; Penn State ML (+115), 5 units (Won)

Dog of the Bowls ("DOB"): UTSA vs. Troy; Troy +1 (-115), 5 units; Troy ML (+100); 4 units (Won)

Triple L ("Lookahead Letdown Lock"): Florida vs. Oregon State; Florida ML (+285), 2 units (Loss)

Regular Game #1: Kansas vs. Arkansas; Kansas +3 (-115), 4 units; Kansas ML (+130), 3 units (Won, Loss)

Regular Game #2: South Carolina vs. Notre Dame; South Carolina +2 (-115), 4 units; South Carolina ML (+115), 3 units (Loss)

Regular Game #3: Fresno State vs. Wazzou; Fresno State -4 (-115), 4 units (Won)

Regular Game #4: Maryland vs. NC State; NC State +1.5 (-115), 4 units; NC State ML (+105), 3 units (Loss)

Regular Game #5: Tulane vs. USC; Tulane +2.5 (-115), 4 units; Tulane ML (+122), 3 units (Won)

Regular Game #6: Oregon vs. North Carolina; Over 70.5 (-115), 2.5 units (Loss)


Cumulative Fat Curry Record: 67-79-1; -17.86 units

Cumulative "The Public" Record: 33-32-1; 18.44 units


Every Bowl Game:

1.) Miami vs. UAB, UAB -11

- UAB hired Trent Dilfer, weird situation with interim coach now

- Gabbert, former Miami starting QB, hit transfer portal but hasn't been playing

- both teams run heavy - look for clocked to get milked harder than a dairy cow

- look at each team's turnover margins here where possessions matter (Miami 23rd in nation)

- Expert: Miami lean cover, UAB win, Under

- Big Daddy: Miami +11


2.) UTSA vs. Troy, Troy -1.5

- UTSA OC, Will Stein, left for Oregon

- Troy best D in Group of Five other than Tulane

- UTSA Frank Harris is a DUDE

- Expert: Split lean, Over

- Big Daddy: Troy points and ML; Troy D wins this and stuffs Frank Harris


3.) UC vs. Louisville, Louisville -2

- Louisville HC left for UC to be head coach

- Kerry Coobs interim coach for UC

- UL without Cunningham, QB, and top wr, rb and others

- No Ben Bryant, QB, for UC

- should be bad weather

- UC has OL and Whyle

- lean under

- Expert: under

- Big Daddy: UC, Coombs will have the boys gassed up - experience rallying dudes from OSU days


4.) Florida vs. Oregon State, Oregon State -10

- Florida has a lot of opt outs

- Oregon State 2nd highest ats cover rate at 10-2

- Oregon State 20th in fewest rush yards allowed

- Florida QB, Richardson, is out

- Chance Nolan, Oregon State QB, out

- think Florida will jump start next season and play dudes for next year - think the 4 star frosh and sophomores

- Florida backup Kitna is out

- OSU transfer Jack Miller is Florida QB

- Anthony Richardson lost Florida as many games as he won them; not as big an opt out as point swing indicates

- Game opened at -5

- Expert: Florida

- Big Daddy: Florida points


5.) Fresno State vs. Washington State, Fresno State -3.5

- Jake Heiner, Fresno State QB, is a DUDE

- line opened up Fresno +4 until Heiner said he was playing

- PAC-12 in bowl games is 27-37 ats the last decade, worst conference in FBS; not won a bowl game since Oregon and Justin Herbert beat Wisconsin in the Jan 1 2020 Rose Bowl

- Pac-12 lost 7 straight bowl games

- Washington State - 3 of top 4 wrs opted out, secondary players also opted out, linebackers opted out

- Cam Ward is a dude for Washington State but doesn't have weapons this game

- Washington State DC gone

- Expert: Fresno lean, Over lean

- Big Daddy: Fresno State


6.) Rice vs. Southern Missouri, Southern Missouri -6

- Southern Miss beat Tulane this year

- Southern Miss got some talent; Frank Gore Jr. Is Rb and going to play

- Southern Miss has played 6-7 different Qbs this year which has led to bad rhythm at offense earlier in season

- Rice - 11 points per game avg. last 3 games

- Expert: Best Bet Southern Miss

- Confidence Rating: higher

- Big Daddy: Southern Miss easily


7.) SMU vs. BYU, SMU -3.5

- BYU QB Hall expected to be out, hasn't practiced, has taken all but three snaps

- BYU backup QB in portal

- BYU OL in portal, rb out

- SMU best wr, Rice, opt out

- playing at 5,300 feet elevation so helps BYU and hurts SMU up-tempo offense

- Expert: BYU, Under bigger lean

- Big Daddy: SMU - experts think Mordecai may only play a half but he could throw 7 tds on BYU's defense so I think he will play all game and pad the stats before the draft


8.) North Texas vs. Boise State, Boise State -10.5

- North Texas fired Head Coach after making bowl games past 6 of 7 years and making Conference Championship

- Boise won last 7 of 9

- Boise OC takeover with Dirk Koetter is really helped

- North Texas DC will be interim coach

- Expert: Boise State lean, Over leam

- Big Daddy: Boise State - team has completely revamped since they fired their OC Tim Plough and Dirk Koetter took over


9.) Marshall vs. UConn, Marshall -10

- UConn happy to be here

- UConn been out gained by other teams by 85 on avg.

- Marshall on avg. outgains teams by 100 yds

- One of UConn rb is out

- Under is 7-4-1 in UConn games, over only hit in 3 of 12 games for Marshall games

- Expert: Marshall lean, Under best bet

- Big Daddy: Marshall - Marshall has a great defense (remember when they beat ND at ND)


10.) Eastern Michigan vs. San Jose State, San Jose State -3.5

- SJSU allows 21 pts game

- Eastern Michigan offense needs the run but SJSU only allow 3.3 yds per carry, 11th in nation

- EMU does not have a win against one bowl team

- San Jose lost 5 of 6 on the road

- best player on field is San Jose QB

- Expert: lean San Jose, Under

- Big Daddy: San Jose


11.) Toledo vs. Liberty, Toledo -5

- Liberty has QB carousel

- Liberty coach gone (Auburn)

- Liberty hired Jeremy Chadwell from Coastal Carolina

- Expert: Toledo lean

- Big Daddy: Toledo easily; lock it up


12.) Western Kentucky vs. South Alabama, South Alabama -4.5

- Austin Reed opted opt but has since withdrawn his name from the portal. Big news for WKU but that's a lot of noise. I'm out on WKU

- South Alabama is a really good team that you have never watched; only losses are to UCLA by 1 and to Troy by 4

- South Alabama has a stingy defense and positive in the turnover margin

- Big Daddy: South Alabama; get out the turnover chain


13.) Baylor vs. Air Force, Baylor -5.5

- Air Force thrives in these types on environments; this is their super bowl playing power 5 teams that aren't too motivated. Baylor was predicted to win the Big-12 and squandered that through a porous defense. Now comes an Air Force team that runs, runs and runs some more. They're conditioned from the altitude and will wither away baylor defense

- Expert: Air force ml

- Big Daddy: Air force points, sprinkle ml if you're feeling dangerous


14.) Louisiana vs. Houston, Houston -7

- Louisiana original starter, Chandler Fields, at QB back from injury

- Louisiana still gets love from the public because they think of the Billy Napier teams from past few years that were top 25; don't fall into this trap

- Expect Dana Hulgerson to use this as a statement win to provide momentum for next season (this season was really disappointing)

- This is one where you lean into what Vegas is telling you will happen, take Houston

- Expert: Houston lean

- Big Daddy: Houston


15.) Wake Forest vs. Missouri, Wake Forest -1

- Wake second rb and de transferring

- Mizzou multiple opt outs and transfers

- Mizzou fought their tails off to get to a bowl game; had to upset South Carolina and Arkansas to get 6 wins and make it here; their motivation to make it shows me they want to be here

- Brady Cook for Mizzou will play and Luther Burden is returning; expect some fireworks between the two against an abysmal Wake Forest defense and start a promising 2023 campaign

- Expert: Mizzou lean

- Big Daddy: Mizzou


16.) MTSU vs. San Diego State, San Diego State -7

- For me, this is a gut pick on whether I think being middle of the Mountain West or Conference USA is better. I have to go with the Mountain West and San Diego is stifle MTSU

- Expert: SDSU

- Big Daddy: SDSU


17.) New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green, Bowling Green -3.5

- Last time Bowling Green made it to a bowl game was when Fat Curry was known as Slim Curry

- Bowling Green had an impressive year, beat expectations and will use the gap to cap this great season

- Expert: split

- Big Daddy: Bowling Green. New Mexico hasn't had anything good since Walter White


18.) Georgia Southern vs. Buffalo, Georgia Southern -3.5

- Buffalo without two starters

- Clay Helton in familiar territory with an overlook 12/27 bowl game. He used to take USC to these all the time so he knows how to motivate a team for a bowl nobody cares about

- Expert: Georgia Southern

- Big Daddy: Clay Helton and Georgia Southern


19.) Memphis vs. Utah State, Memphis -7

- When I watched Utah State this year, I started to profusely puke. I still don't know if it was from their style of football or the Mukbang I performed 30-minutes prior

- Memphis going to drop bombs over top the Utah State secondary

- Expert: Memphis

- Big Daddy: Memphis


20.) ECU vs. Coastal Carolina, ECU -8

- HC of Coastal, Jeremy Chadwell, left for Liberty

- Coastal has multiple transfers, one of which is Grayson McCall

- ECU few portal guys but not as bad as Coastal

- Public sees Coastal getting +8 and is slapping it because they don't know the QB and HC are gone and they think of previous Coastal teams

- Expert: ECU

- Big Daddy: ECU


21.) Wisconsin vs. Oklahoma State, Wisconsin -3

- Wisco lost QB, Center, DL, have an opt out. Not retaining interim coach

- Oklahoma State multiple transfers, one of which is Spencer Sanders who is their QB

- Coin flip but give me Wisco. Oklahoma State sputtered end of the year and I worry they have less motivation than Wisconsin. Psychology play here

- Expert: Split

- Big Daddy: Wisco


22.) UCF vs. Duke, Duke -2

- UCF without Mikey Keane, quasi starter QB and without some other starters

- Elko for HC at Duke deserves some big time looks after 2023 if he continues this trend; Duke was supposed to be bottom of the ACC and is 8-4 and 5-3 in the conference, very slept on team

- Elko is a defensive minded coach and can stifle UCF's air assault offense

- If you haven't watched Duke QB Riley Leonard, you need to. Everyone will talk about Keane or Rhys Plumlee and their versatility, but Leonard may be better than both

- Expert: Duke

- Big Daddy: Duke


23.) Kansas vs. Arkansas, Arkansas -3

- Arkansas has multiple opt outs or injuries including Hazelwood, Pool and Sanders. All leaders on offense or defense

- Kansas Super bowl; give me the team that wants to be here; Arkansas had unrealistic 9 win expectations and New Years Bowl hopes. Being in Memphis is not appealing to Arkansas this time of year

- Expert: Split

- Big Daddy: Kansas pts and ml, Kansas team over, Kansas passing yards prop


24.) Oregon vs. UNC, Oregon -14

- Oregon OC left for ASU OC gig

- Oregon multiple transfers or opt outs, including best defensive player

- Phil lingo OC for UNC left for Wisconsin

- Josh downs, best wr for UNC, opt out

- tony grimes and storm duck, secondary, out for UNC - their d was already spotty

- Bo Nix prime time game = Kirk Cousins, fade

- Expert: Oregon

- Big Daddy: Over


25.) Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss, Ole Miss -3.5

- Donovan Smith transferring from TTU, their QB

- Ole Miss does not have any opt outs; the team is going to compete together one last time; I'll take Ole Miss all day based on this

- Big Daddy: Ole Miss; Lane Kiffin's ego too big to let his team not care about losing to TTU


26.) Syracuse vs. Minnesota, Minnesota -7.5

- Tanner Morgan injury status for Minnesota unclear

- Minnesota secondary portals

- Row the boat, back PJ in games that matter

- Tony white gone for Syracuse

- Expert: Minnesota

- Big Daddy: Minnesota


27.) Oklahoma vs. Florida State, Florida State -7.5

- Oklahoma with LT, RB and other starters opting out

- Florida State getting their two NFL prospects, one being Verse, actually playing in bowl

- Expert: Florida State

- Big Daddy: Florida State


28.) Texas vs. Washington, Texas -4.5

- Penix is playing

- Bijan Robinson and few others opting out for Texas

- Quinn Ewers last game before Arch Manning arrives at Texas; expect Ewers to ball out and show people that Arch is going to have to battle him for the starting spot next year

- Expert: Washington

- Big Daddy: Texas


29.) Notre Dame vs. South Carolina, Notre Dame -2

- ND has mayer out, drew pyne transferring

- Tyler Buchnet for ND back from injury to lead ND at QB. Who he gonna throw to

- Stogner out for South Carolina, transfer

- Rattler playing

- Expert: Split

- Big Daddy: South Carolina points and ml


30.) Maryland vs. NC State, Maryland -1.5

- Maryland without top 2 wrs, cb

- NC State has Devin Leary, QB, hitting portal

- NC State OC going to Coastal Carolina as HC

- Expert: NC State

- Big Daddy: NC State points and ml


31.) Pitt vs. UCLA, UCLA -6

- Kedon Slovis, Pitt, QB transferring

- UCLA - DTR and Charbonnet playing

- Charbonnet will be player of the game; most slept on rb in NCAA; will be very good NFL player

- Expert: UCLA

- Big Daddy: UCLA easy


32.) Wyoming vs. Ohio, Even

- Wyoming is a run heavy team

- Wyoming has a lot of starters and offensive weapons injured or transferring

- Ohio starting QB out from injury

- Expert: Split

- Big Daddy: Ohio


33.) Tennessee vs. Clemson, Clemson -6.5

- Tillman opt out for Tennessee, Hyatt tbd

- Dj transferring for Clemson, should help them honestly

- UT without Hooker we haven't seen, Joe Milton steps up who used to start at Michigan

- Expert: Clemson

- Big Daddy: Clemson; too many holes with Tennessee; will be a new offense


34.) Alabama vs. Kansas State, Alabama -3

- Alabama has multiple transfers

- assume Will Anderson and Young opt out

- Knowles, big wr threat for k state, got hurt

- Bama has enough depth on the sidelines to plug the opt out and transfer holes. Bama and Saban to fight this one out and cover by 7

- Expert: K State

- Big Daddy: Bama


35.) Iowa vs Kentucky, Iowa -2.5

- Iowa Spencer Petras hurt and their backup QB is transferring so their 3rd string, Joey Labas, starting

- Uk fired OC

- Levis and Rodriguez for UK, QB and rb, opt out

- Even with UK opt outs, UK has a more well-rounded team

- Can you imagine how bad Iowa's third string QB must be if their first string qb was setting NCAA records for lowest QBR?

- Expert: Split

- Big Daddy: UK


36.) TCU vs. Michigan, Michigan -7.5

- Corum done for Michigan

- This game will be closer than the Georgia v. OSU game

- Duggan will be healthy for the game but won't have a defense to stop Michigan

- Give me a 35-31 win for Michigan, the more well-rounded team

- Expert: Michigan

- Big Daddy: TCU covers, Michigan wins


37.) Georgia vs. OSU, Georgia -6.5

- OSU JSN opt out

- OSU rbs unhealthy

- This Georgia team isn't as good as last year, but they're very close

- People still write off Georgia because of Stetson Bennett but he should have won the Heisman

- Stetson thrives in big games; he played better than Young in the Championship last year and played better than Hooker in the matchup this year

- Stetson will pick a part this OSU defense, especially if JJ McCarthy for Michigan was able to do this

- Georgia corners will be all over OSU wrs

- Ringo vs Harrison Jr. will be matchup of Bowl Mania

- Georgia wins this easily and gets a chance to defend the crown

- Expert: Georgia

- Big Daddy: Georgia wins by 17


38.) Mississippi State vs. Illinois, Illinois -2

- Mike Leach RIP

- Hate picking this game but give me the team, Illinois, that has been able to practice and focus

- Expert: Miss State

- Big Daddy: Illinois


39.) Tulane vs. USC, USC -1.5

- Caleb Williams health unclear, he won't play because hammy injuries take a long time to recover

- USC defense is really really bad

- This is Tulane's super bowl; they have a fantastic defense that can confuse a USC backup with Caleb not playing

- Michael Pratt, QB, for Tulane is playing; expect a statement game before he hits the transfer portal for a bigger school (Auburn, Miss State?)

- Expert: Split

- Big Daddy: Tulane points and ml


40.) LSU vs. Purdue, LSU -11.5

- LSU has Boutte playing and coming back

- Daniels for LSU unclear

- Brohm leaving for Louisville HC

- Kelly will have his team ready; a chance for Nussmeier and other 5 and 4 stars to show what LSU will be like next year

- Expert: LSU

- Big Daddy: LSU


41.) Penn State vs. Utah, Utah -2.5

- Parker Washing and Joey Porter out for PSU

- Utah Utes rb opt out

- Lock of my life; James Franklin will finally cover as dog and have people think he's a better coach than what he really is

- Expect Utah to make Fat Curry and James Franklin both look better than what they are

- I've watched more PSU football this year than James Franklin and can assure you that this team is actually pretty good and can beat an overrated Utah

- Expert: Split

- Big Daddy: Penn State best bet, Penn state ml and points, highest confidence rating


42.) National Championship

Georgia vs. Michigan, Georgia wins by 14



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