top of page

Open Up Wide & Don't You Gag: The 2024 NFL Draft & Final Mocks Have Arrived


You ever caught yourself wondering which johnsons people have caressed throughout life to get where they are today? For example, sometimes all it takes is a decade of applying Jergens, having egyptian cotton like palms and feeding blue pills to a San Francisco Mayor twice your age to not only resuscitate a once hibernating appendage but also revivify your political career.


As I sit here on NFL Draft Day in the middle of the Fayetteville library surrounded by my other esteemed, unemployed and likely vagrant brethrens, I start to think about the likes of Dane Brugler, Pete Prisco, Mel Kiper and especially Bucky Brooks and how many individuals they had to holistically touch to get to their respective positions.


Since the common thread between myself and them is being a football journalist, I started thinking about why those three individuals are much more successful and mainstream than myself. In other words, what do they all have that I do not?


After a few minutes of watching the library patrons around me either decapitate computer zombies or fist pump to the latest Baha Men record, I decided to pull up prior mock drafts to see if these journalists were just flat-out better than Fat Curry at predicting the NFL Draft as well as future dudes and busts.


I decided to pull up Dane Brugler's 2023 final mock draft because he is the epitome of the NFL Draft. Heck, Dane Brugler is somewhat the reason I created this blog because I purchased his NFL Draft 2022 book, redlined it like my old A.P. History professor when he read my thesis why the New Deal prolonged the Depression, and I said that Jordan Stout would be the worst nfl draft pick of all time (https://www.fatcurrybets.com/post/what-if-i-told-you-that-the-worst-nfl-draft-pick-of-all-time-hasn-t-even-played-a-down-yet). The rest is history.


Well, for a guy whose primary responsibility is to monitor the draft year-round, you want to take a wild guess how many 1st-round picks Dane Brugler chose correctly?......It was 4 out of 31 picks (1, 8, 16 & 23). That's a whopping 13% if you give him the benefit of the doubt and round. I'm pretty sure if you write your name on the ACT, you technically get a score that's above a 13%.


So going back to my original question: what makes these men extremely sought after come NFL Draft time because it clearly isn't the mock drafts? Assuming their palms are a bit unkempt and ashy, maybe all of these men possess the uncanny ability to unlock their jaws; Or maybe each man developed polydipsia and has an excessive thirst, unlocking a newfound ability to guzzle any liquid in copious amounts rather quickly; OR MAYBE, JUST MAYBE, they lack a gag reflex.


Now you're probably saying to yourself: "Woah there, Big Daddy. That's a bold and far-fetched accusation coming from an unemployed man who currently takes and lives off of his fiancee and gives nothing in return." And you're right, I have developed into a recent taker, but hear me out for a few more seconds. The reason I say they may lack a pharyngeal reflex is because studies show that a lack of a gag reflex may be a symptom of a more severe medical condition, such as cranial nerve damage.


Let's go back to that 13% quickly. Do you know any occupation where the best in the business only deliver 13% of the time? Politicians continuously embellish so I'll rule them out, but imagine the societal repercussions if we applauded, celebrated and handsomely rewarded doctors who only saved 13% of patients or detectives who only cleared 13% of outstanding homicides (maybe in Baltimore this would actually be an accomplishment unless you're Jimmy McNulty).


So now that my hooting and hollering has come to a close, what is my advice for you when analyzing this year's NFL Draft? Throw the mocks out the window. Below are a handful of 2024 mocks, including the final mock that myself, Ballin Trev and our half jew, half italian friend spent 72-hours putting together. Long-story short, there isn't a whole lot of continuity amongst the insiders starting at pick #5 this year. This is why I have only placed my unemployment funds backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. Government into futures that are plus-money. My personal favorite bets are 1) Michael Penix Over 32.5 and 2) Bo Nix Over 32.5. I could write a book that rivals the length and depth of Atlas Shrugged as to why either QB should not go in the 1st-round. But to put it most simply, trust your eyes and your gut after watching years of every player and ignore the noise of the internet.


To also help you in your analysis of the draft, below are 1) our mock draft, 2) my notes from watching Reeses' Senior Bowl & East-West Shrine Bowl Practices and 3) my shekel meter where I breakdown a lot of futures that I'd consider along with every future that I have taken.


Yours in taking, not giving and Michael Penix Going Over 32.5 Picks,

Big Daddy / Fat Curry




Bucky Brooks is a bitch
.xlsx
Download XLSX • 12KB

East-West Shrine & Reeses Senior Bowls - Practice Notes
.xlsx
Download XLSX • 1.09MB





Gun-to-my-head pick on NFL Draft Futures (Brought to you by Bet Saracen):

*Denotes Fat Curry has personally invested his government unemployed money in the future


Locks of My Life Part 3 Bets:

1.) Michael Penix Over 32.5 +275****************************** Shekel Meter: 5/5

2.) Bo Nix Over 32.5: +105*********************** Shekel Meter: 5/5


1.) Number of Safeties in 1st-Round: +450*

Rationale: I think Tyler Nubin can squeak into the 1st-round. Shekel Meter: 1/5


2.) Number of QBs in 1st-Round: Under 4.5 +190*

Rationale: Ignore the noise. If GM's prefer sending their kids to private school vs. public school, then they'll be smart enough to not take a risk on either Bo Nix or Michael Penix in Rd. 1. Shekel Meter: 2/5


3.) 2nd-TightEnd Drafted: J.T. Sanders +195*

Rationale: PFF has J.T. Sanders as the 43rd best-player. Next best TE is 92nd. Shekel Meter: 4/5


4.) Jordan Morgan Over 32.5: +120*

Rationale: When others zig, you zag. All mocks have Morgan going picks 30-32. But guess what I have vs. these other mock draft journos? I met Jordan and spoke to him for 5-minutes. He's a great guy, but he's not a towering figure. His stature will push him into the 2nd-round. Shekel Meter: 2/5


5.) Troy Fautanu Over 15.5: +104*

Rationale: I don't think I am crazy when I say that Alt, Fashanu, Fuaga, Latham and Mims could all go ahead of Fautanu. I don't even see 4 of these men going top-15. Shekel Meter: 2/5


6.) JC Latham Over 14.5: +140*

Rationale: I really don't know who has been pushing JC Latham over the past week, but it sounds like they have as much money on him as I do in UVXY. His stock only went one way over the year, and that was down. If his QB was a nyone not named Jalen Milroe, Latham would have the same stock as Jordan Morgan. Shekel Meter: 3/5


7.) 2nd-Lineman Drafted: Olu Fashanu +229*

Rationale: Olu was discussed as the potential 1st-Tackle in the draft. Alt is better but Olu beats the rest. Shekel Meter: 4/5


8.) 2nd-Cornerback Drafted: Cooper DeJean +600*

Rationale: I know he's white, but he's more athletic than any DB in this draft. Some GM who has done his homework probably takes a chance on him after another team pulls the trigger on a DB. Shekel Meter: 2/5


9.) Rome Odunze Over 8.5: +120*

Rationale: 3 WR's in the first 8 picks? I highly doubt it, especially after Adam Schefter reported that 1st-Rd WRs are the most likely to be a bust and not get a second contract. MH Jr. and Malik go ahead of Rome. Shekel Meter: 3/5


10.) J.J. McCarthy Over 5.5: +120*

Rationale: Watch a Michigan game and you'll know what I mean. Will Levis 2.0. Shekel Meter: 3/5


11.) 3rd-Overall Pick: Marvin Harrison Jr. +2250*

Rationale: If I'm the Patriots, I got a lot of holes to fille. Why not take the most ready player at #3 and pass on the 3rd QB in draft. Shekel Meter: 4/5


12.) 1st-Overall Pick: Caleb Williams -20,000

Rationale: I'm not betting it, but if you got extra cash that you don't have to put into an FDIC-Insured 5% savings account or donate to me, then bet this. Shekel Meter: 5/5


13.) 3rd-Drafted QB: Jayden Daniels +750

Rationale: Better payout than 2nd-Overall Pick: Drake Maye +600

Rationale: Drake Maye was the #2 pick in this draft for about a year. Never say never. Shekel Meter: 1/5


14.) 1st-drafted Non-Quarterback: Marvin Harrison Jr. -1100

Rationale: Because I said so. Shekel Meter: 4/5


15.) Team to draft Brock Bowers: Jets +200

Rationale: Rodgers is back and he loves himself some white-bread tight-ends. If the Jets don't take Brock, lay a shekel on J.J. McCarthy to go here. Shekel Meter: 1/5


16.) Top 5-Pick: Malik Nabers +220

Rationale: If teams decide to not jump at this QB class like people predict, Marvin Harrison and Nabers will jump and benefit the most from it. Shekel Meter: 2/5


17.) Top-10 Pick: Brock Bowers -105

Rationale: One of those guys where he should go top-ten,, but some GM will likely overthink it and prove me wrong. An annual tradition unlike any other. You're essentially betting on him to go to the Jets at #10. Take that vs. these odds. Shekel Meter: 1/5


18.) Team to Draft J.J. McCarthy: Broncos +1100, Jets +10,000*

Rationale: I don't think J.J. is as good as others, so I am laying a "told you so" bet. Shekel Meter: 1/5


19.) 4th-Overall Pick: Malik Nabers +1,750*

Rationale: See above. Shekel Meter: 1/5


20.) 5th-Overall Pick: Drake Maye +1,750*

Rationale: If he slides, someone trades to get him no later than at #5. Shekel Meter: 1/5


21.) Team to Draft Xavier Worthy: Dolphins +500*

Rationale: Mike McDaniel's autism won't be able to ignore having the two fastest guys in the league (and Waddle) next year. Shekel Meter: 1/5


22.) 8th-Overall Pick: Dallas Turner: +165

Rationale: Best DE in the draft. Killed the combine. Falcons can use some defensive help after spending prior years 1st-rounders on skill guys. Shekel Meter: 1/5


23.) 9th-Overall Pick: Rome Odunze +350*

Rationale: If Rome is left at #9 and the Bears don't trade out of it, then why not give him another weapon to grow with. Shekel Meter: 1/5


24.) Graham Barton Over 21.5: +220*

Rationale: As a future alumnus of Duke, I love the school and its players as much as anyone else. I think Graham goes 1st-round but 21.5 is a tad rich for me. Shekel Meter: 1/5


25.) 1st-Safety Drafted: Tyler Nubin +125*

Rationale: I honest to gosh don't know who would go ahead of him. I watched Javon Bullard in the Reeses Senior Bowl practices, and he got cooked repeatedly. Shekel Meter: 4/5


26.) 1st-Linebacker: Payton Wilson +425*

Rationale: Looked really good in the Reeses practices that I saw. He crushed the draft and he performed multiple years in college. Cooper from TAMU is the higher ceiling guy most will say, but Wilson is by far the most proven and day 1 ready. If the 1st-lineback is going Day 2, take a proven player like Wilson. Shekel Meter: 2/5

15 views0 comments

Recent Posts

See All

NCAA Tournament Day 1

I love March. First days of spring. Opening Day. And March Madness. Starting at 12, make sure you have your do not disturb turned on. Boss wants to see you? Nope - busy day ahead. Girlfriend wants to

Well that was interesting

Yesterday was a doozy. Started out with 3 straight wins (after 2 wins to close out Friday). Then we got a little greedy and went after the evening slate and just went cold. 3-3 on the day but we only

Comments


bottom of page