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As the clock struck 11:00pm CT on January 9, 2023 and confetti rained down from the ceiling of Sofi field onto the greatest walk-on that College Football has ever seen, I found myself laying next to an empty KFC 16-piece bucket for one and questioning what to write about now. You see, football is more than just a sport to Daddy. It gives me life. Football is the reason I created this blog and has allowed me to interact weekly with my fellow degenerates. Football has brought me some of the greatest highs (i.e. creating new psychological mindset phrases such as "Dugganism") and some of the greatest lows (i.e. seeing frauds like James Franklin be rewarded with multi-generational wealth type of contracts).
Since January 9, I have tried finding new hobbies that allow me to live, to laugh and to love. However, all I have found is mostly despair and disappointment, whether it be watching Tyrese Proctor try to single-handedly make me look like I have an IQ under 60 when posting "#Si6hts" whenever Duke basketball is playing or watching Ron Swanson kill himself in "The Last of Us". One quick takeaway and tangent that I do have from episode 3 of "The Last of US" is that the episode is about finding what makes you live, even when death may be all around you. Through some of the darkest hours of your life, that one thing that brings you life to the fullest may just be on the horizon. This message spoke a lot to Daddy, as I've tried pivoting more of my attention to College Basketball in hopes of getting quickly acclimated with all teams so that I can write an in-depth March Madness blog. The only issue is 1) that it is extremely hard to make enough money betting CBB to pay off my future double bypass surgery when you start watching a sport mid-season and 2) I never had to force bet Rice +3.5 vs. UAB when I had one more chance of finding life with the Super Bowl on the horizon.
This is a very long-winded way of me saying that today is finally the day we can all find life one more time and it isn't from eating a stale cracker at Church. Today is the Super Bowl between the Eagles and Chiefs. While America ultimately loses today because either Philly fans will win or Patrick Mahomes' menace of a wife and brother will win, Daddy has one more chance to resurrect from his slumber and help make you some money and ease the pain.
Below are quick stats you should know, screenshots of numbers that matter, my final prediction for the game and my favorite props.
Yours in living one more time before China invades us, (not) laughing at the unfunny commercials that are going to be shown tonight and loving the food coma and type 2 diabetes that I'm about to self-impose,
Fat Curry / Big Daddy
Super Bowl Prediction:
Eagles win by 10+ points. Final score prediction is 27-17, Eagles
Eagles +2.5 (-130), Eagles -4.5 (+160), Eagles/Eagles +160 (Halftime/Fulltime), Chiefs/Eagles +700 (Halftime/Fulltime)
Every square in America that bets the Chiefs is going to start their argument with how the Eagles played a cupcake schedule. While this isn't inaccurate as the Eagles had the 31st easiest schedule, I never heard this argument for the 49s who had the 32nd easiest schedule and many labeled as the best team. I believe all games are won and lost in the trenches and Philly simply has the best O-Line and D-Line right now. If they get pressure on Mahomes and reaggrevate his ankle injury, then it could be a long night for the Chiefs. I think many people expect the Eagles to implement a run-heavy offense but I wholeheartedly disagree. I think Sirianni is extremely unlikeable because of his cocky personality, but this personality leads to an aggression and desire to punch the Chiefs in the mouth early. I wouldn't be surprised if Sirianni gets the ball first drive and calls a few bombs looking to secure a 7-0 lead on all passes in order to shock the Chiefs.
Team to have longest field goal: Chiefs (-115). Butker has been absolutely terrible from 50+ (3-7) but I think Sirianni's aggression is going to have the Eagles go for any 4th and shorts rather than kick a 48+ field goal
Team to call 1st timeout: Chiefs (-115). Any Reid has called the 1st timeout in all but three games this year. The walrus loves to burn one early. I could see the Eagles go up early, Chiefs get the ball and burn a timeout as the play clock is about to expire and the crowd is in their ear
Either team to miss a field goal (+145). Butker isn't healthy in my opinion
Successful 2-point conversion (+200). It's the Super Bowl. Weird things happen
1st td scorer: Devonta Smith (+1300), Pacheco (+900) and Mahomes (+3000). I am limiting myself to only bet offensive props for one skill guy per team. I think Smith has the biggest game for the Eagles and Pacheco has the biggest game for the Chiefs. Could see Mahomes sneak in a td if he is close to the goal-line
Position of MVP: Defensive Lineman (+2500) and Linebacker (+3000). Chaos bet here. It's not worth betting a QB to win the award, and when a QB hasn't won the award, a defensive player has won it more times than an offensive skill guy. This bet is on either Reddick or Jones to have big games on the other end of the football
Pacheco over 14.5 receiving yards (-120). Eagles don't have to blitz a lot because they are that good as rushing with four. This allows Chiefs to play Pacheco more and not rely on McKinnon's pass-block capabilities
Devonta Smith over 5.5 receptions (+120). A.J Brown is going to get the best of the Chiefs secondary so this allows Smith to exploit the Chiefs. I call for a pass-heavy offense and Smith to eat tonight
Devonta Smith over 62.5 yards (-130). See above
Total Interception Over 1.5 (+125). Mahomes has thrown a pick in each of his 2 Super Bowl appearances; if I assume that Mahomes is good for at least one pick, I am theoretically betting Over .5 pick at +125 to be thrown by Mahomes, Hurts or anyone else on the field (e.g. trick play and Valdes-Scantling throws a fastball right into Darius Slay's chest)
Quick Super Bowl Stats to Know:
1.) This is the first time that a Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs team has been an underdog. Is this the worst Chiefs team that we've seen or are the Eagles that good?
2.) Philly and Chiefs are #1 and #2 in 4th-quarter win share, respectively. Can the Eagles come back if they get behind or can they only win when ahead? Can they rely on the pass if they fall behind 1-2 scores?
3.) Strength of Schedule favors Chiefs. The QB's that Eagles have played are: Goff, Prime-Time Cousins, Wentz, Lawrence, Murray, Rush, Pickett, Mills, Heinicke, Ryan, Rodgers, Tannehill, Jones, Fields, Prescott, Dalton and McCaffrey
4.) Philly had 13th best odds to win the Super Bowl coming into the season. Is 18-games enough data to negate pre-season odds?
5.) PFF grades Philly as the best O-Line and Chiefs as the #4 O-Line
6.) MVP winners have lost 9 straight Super Bowls. Can Mahomes reverse the curse?
Supporting Numbers and Screenshots: