Wit or Luck? Testing My Weekly CFB Predictions Against The Public

A philosophical question that I have been asking myself since last year is if betting either takes wit or luck? I had one of the more memorable college football seasons last year. It started with me providing 6 weekly picks (3 regular games, 1 LOW, 1 DOW, 1 Triple L) and sending the unwarranted, weekly advice to my friends prior to Saturday kick-offs. What started as a weekly joke slowly turned into a weekly addiction. The more I started to correctly pick games, the more that I wanted to keep giving picks and see if my predictions would hit. By the end of the season, I ended up ~55% across all predictions which included ~70% on my Locks of The Week (LOW), 57% on my Dogs of the Week (DOW) and hit ~33% on my Lookahead Letdown Locks (Triple L).

Coming into week 1 of the '22 CFB season, I seek to repeat a feat almost as mighty as Mike Brown not being ousted by Cincinnatians for refusing to pay for an indoor facility. I will continue the same format as last year where I will provide 3 regular games, 1 LOW, 1 DOW and 1 Triple L per week. The rules are that a LOW pick must be against the spread and can warrant up to 2 units because it's a bigger lock than James Franklin losing to OSU. A DOW pick is 1 unit on an underdog that is +3 or greater against the spread, and additionally, you can wager up to 1 unit on the moneyline. The Triple L is an underdog that is a big longshot at +7 or greater and you take the moneyline, not the points. This is a wager of usually 1/3 a unit since it typically hits every ~4 weeks. The 3 regular games are 3 bets against the spread and can be up to 1 unit either by taking the points or giving the points. In total, there will be 6 weekly picks.

To spice this up a bit more and to help me better answer the philosophical question if betting takes wit or luck, I will be asking a different person in my life each week to randomly take a side to the 5 games excluding the Triple L pick. This random person will not know what side I take, will likely have no clue that James Franklin is a fraud and will definitely have never read this post. I'm as reasonable a guy as Bill Rawls so with adding this level of randomness, I vow to respect the results of this test. Although my selfish hope is that the hours of toil that I put into searching for a betting edge on MACtion Tuesday while at work (Shred Kulszewski doesn't know what he's talking about) are found to be an effective use of company time.

I will keep this blog as a living document and add my weekly picks to it along with providing a tally on my predictions compared to the public. May the best binary win. #ESKETIT

Side note: It's worth mentioning a few betting rules that I encourage others to consider and ultimately follow:

• Leave Room For Jesus When Making Parlays: The parlay payoffs will always tempting, especially when you think you're going 6/6 (in my instance). Odds are never enough to warrant the risk, and you will end up printing more money for your bookie than Jerome Powell is printing for America

• Pace yourself: College Football is a long-season. There's going to be down weeks, but you have to maintain discipline, put emotions to the side and slowly climb out of the hole over the following week(s). The last thing that you want to do is start in a hole and make it a grave after you go all in on Hawaii to cover -3 vs. Wyoming

• Have a game plan: Come into each Saturday with a plan of who you are going to take and the units you're betting; if you wait until the last minute, that's when people tend to get sloppy in their bets and amounts wagered

• Trust your eyes, not Stanford Steve: Stay away from Stanford Steve, as he's the spawn of Satan and getting the hands from Daddy if I ever see him in a Home Depot. But moral of the story is have some self-confidence, trust your eyes and the hours that you put into watching football. Don't start second-guessing yourself and start googling free sites giving predictions on what teams are going to cover (except for Fat Curry's Bets, those are locks)

• Treat Betting Like Individual Stock Picking: The greatest stock pickers of the 21st Century (Buffett, Belfort, Curry) didn't become the greatest by picking the largest companies in the world that all Analysts review daily. No, they became the greatest by taking bets on overlooked assets that had a bit of hair on them at first glance, but with some love, they were as beautiful as October 23, 2021 when James Franklin lost in 9-OTs to Illinois at not so happy valley. This means STAY AWAY FROM TOP-25 MATCHUPS. When Saturdays roll around, I want you to forget about any games that College GameDay contemplated going to and focus on the games with teams that either have 1) a minimum of two directions in their names and still don't provide reader's a clue where the college is located or 2) colleges with names that sound auto-generated in NCAA Football 14 (e.g. Northwestern State vs. Faulkner)

Speaking of Faulkner (check the below article, photo and cleat):

61-Year-Old, Alan Moore, Kicks His Way Into College Football History (https://abcnews.go.com/US/61-year-alan-moore-kicks-college-football-history/story?id=14787816)

Week 1 CFB Predictions: Fat Curry vs. His Girlfriend

Fat Curry:

Lock of the Week ("LOW"): TCU @ Colorado; TCU -13.5, 2 unit (Win)

Dog of the Week ("DOW"): Boise State @ Oregon State; Boise State +2.5, 1 unit; Boise State ML +125, 1 unit (Loss)

Lookahead Letdown Lock of the Week ("Triple L"): Old Dominion vs. Virginia Tech; Old Dominion +222 ML, 1/3 unit (Win)

Regular Game #1: Oklahoma vs. UTEP; Oklahoma -30.5, 1 unit (Win)

Regular Game #2: Mississippi State vs. Memphis; Mississippi State -16, 1 unit (Win)

Regular Game #3: Southern Miss vs. Liberty; Southern Miss +3.5, 1 unit (Win)

His Girlfriend:

Lock of the Week ("LOW"): TCU @ Colorado; Colorado +13.5, 2 unit (Loss)

Dog of the Week ("DOW"): Boise State @ Oregon State; Oregon State -2.5, 1 unit; Oregon State ML -135, 1 unit (Win)

Regular Game #1: Oklahoma vs. UTEP; Oklahoma -30.5, 1 unit (Win)

Regular Game #2: Mississippi State vs. Memphis; Memphis +16, 1 unit (Loss)

Regular Game #3: Southern Miss vs. Liberty; Liberty -3.5, 1 unit (Loss)

Fat Curry Week 1 Record: 5-2; +3.27 units

"The Public" Week 1 Record: 3-3; -1.44 units

Week 2 CFB Predictions: Fat Curry vs. His Girlfriend

Fat Curry:

Lock of the Week ("LOW"): Boise State @ New Mexico; Boise State -17, 2 units (Push)

Dog of the Week ("DOW"): Boston College @ Virginia Tech; Boston College +2.5, 1 unit; Boston College +110, 1 unit (Loss)

Lookahead Letdown Lock of the Week ("Triple L"): North Carolina @ Georgia State; Georgia State +222, 1/3 unit (Loss)

Regular Game #1: Louisville @ UCF; UCF -5.5, 1 unit (Loss)

Regular Game #2: Virginia @ Illinois; Virginia +4, 1 unit (Loss)

Regular Game #3: Memphis @ Navy; Memphis -5, 1 unit (Win)

His Girlfriend:

Lock of the Week ("LOW"): Boise State @ New Mexico; Boise State -17, 2 units (Push)

Dog of the Week ("DOW"): Boston College @ Virginia Tech; Virginia Tech -2.5, 1 unit; Virginia Tech -130, 1 unit (Win)

Regular Game #1: Louisville @ UCF; UCF -5.5, 1 unit (Loss)

Regular Game #2: Virginia @ Illinois; Illinois -4, 1 unit (Win)

Regular Game #3: Memphis @ Navy; Navy ("Murica") +5, 1 unit (Loss)

Fat Curry Week 2 Record: 1-5-1; -3.43 units

"The Public" Week 2 Record: 3-2-1; .56 units

Cumulative Fat Curry Record: 6-7-1; -.16 units

Cumulative "The Public" Record: 6-5-1; -.88 units