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I'm Blind, I'm Deaf, I want to be a PFF Analyst or an NFL GM on Draft Day

One of life's greatest mysteries is how two people can live in the exact same reality, yet see the truth behind it as completely different. I learned this the hard way last year when I had an over 180.5 draft-grade on Jordan Stout and ranked him as my #3 punter. However, the Ravens not only took him as the #1 punter but took him at #130. Losing this "lock of my life" made me realize that the NFL Draft is extremely hard to predict, and to bet, because there is what should happen and then there is what will happen. What also makes forecasting draft day decisions hard is all of the "journalists" at PFF who didn't get their dream (unpaid) internship of fetching sparkling water for Anderson Cooper so now they're wreaking havoc on my Twitter feed and also on Cincinnati's plumbing after eating the chili. Here I am thinking the circus went bankrupt.


For this year's NFL Draft Day article, I thought I'd be fun to split the hairs of reality by taking PFF's latest mock draft by Ben Brown, comparing it to my own thoughts and then giving an honest assessment of the "truth" and what will likely happen on Thursday.


April 13 - Ben Brown (PFF) Mock Draft

(https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2023-market-implied-nfl-mock-draft-bryce-young-panthers-cardinals-trade-down):

Bryce Young

Ben Brown (PFF) - 1

Fat Curry (Fat Curry Bets) - 1

Draft Day - Under 1.5


Summary: Believe it or not, I agree with Ben here. If you've watched Bryce over the years at Bama, he's not only Saban's best QB, but he's another tier above the QBs in this draft class. Some call him the magician, but I prefer to call him the chef because I can't stop thinking about food and because there isn't another QB in recent memory that makes as much chicken salad out of chicken shit.


C.J. Stroud

Ben Brown (PFF) - 2

Fat Curry (Fat Curry Bets) - 7

Draft Day - Under 3.5


Summary: If you think this year's draft is QB-heavy, just take a look at next year's class. I'm much more a proponent of next year's draft having QBs go back-to-back-to-back (4 is over the top, Ben) with Williams, Maye and Ewers. Myth #1 about C.J. Stroud is that he is a runner. C.J. is the heaviest pocket-passer out of the top 4-QBs in this year's class. With today's NFL gravitating to QBs who can beat you with their legs when needed (even Burrow), I think this hurts C.J.'s stock a smidge. I have 6 prospects who I'd say are more guarantees than himself. However, I still think he's the #2 QB in this class and would expect a team to trade up to #3 to take him if still there.


Anthony Richardson

Ben Brown (PFF) - 3

Fat Curry (Fat Curry Bets) - 16

Draft Day - Under 7.5


Summary: I'm not sure if there's a more high-risk, high-reward player in the past decade. Richardson came out hot in 2022 beating Utah week 1 and gaining top-3 Heisman hype to only follow it up with 6 losses, a 17:9 td:int ratio and a completion percentage a smidge above 50%. As a Packers fan, my litmus test for Richardson is to ask myself if I'd rather have him or Jordan Love and a receiver at the #15 pick, and I'd much rather have Jordan Love. I think a GM takes "chips" off the table from future drafts and trades up for Richardson if he's still there at #7, and it will go down as either one of the greatest trades in the 2000s or will set back a franchise (probably the Raiders) for years.


Will Levis

Ben Brown (PFF) - 4

Fat Curry (Fat Curry Bets) - 12

Draft Day - Under 6.5


Summary: I was one of the first people to see Will Levis play. I saw him on October 5, 2019 in garbage time vs. Purdue. What I saw in just a few drives made me believe he should start over Sean Clifford (funny how they're now both in the draft but only one got invited to the combine). All this to say I created the damn Will Levis wagon that freeloaders like Ben have suddenly decided to hop onto this past month. However, I think Will is the #3 QB in this draft and has as many eating flaws as decision-making flaws. In good conscience, I could not and would not want to take him in the top-ten picks. However, I think his intangibles will have a GM ready to trade up if he's still lingering around at #6.

Will Anderson Jr.

Ben Brown (PFF) - 5

Fat Curry (Fat Curry Bets) - 2

Draft Day - Under 3.5


Summary: Will Anderson had a college career that warrants #1 considerations. So when clowns like Ben put him at #5, it makes me honestly question 1) how much college football Ben has watched and 2) what more could Will have done to be ranked ahead of more unproven guys such as Levis or Richardson. I know QB is thought of as the most important position, but I'd rather take as close a lock of an NFL-starting player today in Will and potentially build around him for the next 10 years. My big ass gut honestly thinks DeMeco Ryans takes him at #2 and gets Williams, Maye or Ewers next year.


Devon Witherspoon

Ben Brown (PFF) - 6

Fat Curry (Fat Curry Bets) - 8

Draft Day - Under 7.5


Summary: Ben and I are more aligned here than I am comfortable, so we're likely both wrong. Devon had one of the greatest seasons as a corner and should be the #1 CB taken. CBs are becoming hot commodities in today's pass happy NFL. However, it's arguably one of the hardest positions to adapt to when going from CFB to the NFL. I think the learning curve is extremely steep, and if I was a GM, I'd rather wait until later in the round to select a CB.


Jalen Carter

Ben Brown (PFF) - 7

Fat Curry (Fat Curry Bets) - 3

Draft Day - Under 5.5


Summary: Jalen Carter arguably had more heisman moments than Caleb Williams. For Caleb, the only one that comes to mind is writing "F*** Utah" on his nails to only lose to them for the second-time in the same season. For Carter, his heisman moment was picking up future heisman winner Jayden Daniels with one arm like a baby. Jalen is right there with Will Anderson Jr. as being as close to a lock of an NFL-ready starter today. My personal view is that the legal issues will blow over in due time, as most due when a lot of money is on the line. I think there's a team out there who has gotten comfortable with the off-field issues and would rather take the flier on Carter than on Witherspoon, Wilson or Skoronski.


Tyree Wilson

Ben Brown (PFF) - 8

Fat Curry (Fat Curry Bets) - 23

Draft Day - Under 13.5


Summary: I just don't get the Tyree hype. I watch "highlights" and his first step is extremely slow to me. Sacks sell in the NFL, so let's play a little trivia game. Player A had 7 sacks in 2022 and 2021, meanwhile, Player B had 8.5 and 11 sacks, respectively. Any guesses on who these players are? Player A is Tyree Wilson and Player B is Felix Anudike-Uzomah who isn't even on Ben's top 31. Ben is probably more accurate in the terms of what an NFL GM will do, but doesn't mean it will be the right move when looking back in 3 years.


Paris Johnson Jr.

Ben Brown (PFF) - 9

Fat Curry (Fat Curry Bets) - 24

Draft Day - Under 16.5


Summary: I've known about Paris for 6-years now, as he went to my high school for 3 years until he transferred out senior year because our school wasn't going to let him graduate early. Paris ended up transferring to a local public school, playing his senior year of ball there, graduating in December and making OSU's spring camp. Paris has shown adaptability and a hard work-ethic plugging holes on the OSU line where needed. He finally got his chance to be the starting LT this year and didn't disappoint. However, I watch his tape and think he's just alright, nothing special. I think his first step is slow and that Georgia beat him up pretty easily. Skoronski is my #1 choice for tackle, but this doesn't mean that Paris can't crack the top-15.


Peter Skoronski

Ben Brown (PFF) - 10

Fat Curry (Fat Curry Bets) - 6

Draft Day - Under 8.5


Summary: Skoronski is smaller than Paris and apparently has t-rex arms that will make some teams line him up at guard. I think we are knit picking the most consistent o-lineman in the draft and a guy who actually has solid tape playing LT against Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo (remember them?). I want to think that I'll be closer to what actually happens on Thursday but maybe the Ravens will find a way to blow that up again


Christian Gonzalez

Ben Brown (PFF) - 11

Fat Curry (Fat Curry Bets) - 28

Draft Day - Under 14.5


Summary: A transfer from Colorado, the guy has been shooting up boards after playing in the JV conference also known as the PAC-12. Man got torched by Georgia, didn't have to play USC this year and graded ok vs. DTR (UCLA), Penix (Washington) and Rising (Utah). Are any of those 3 qbs in the NFL 5 years from now? I highly doubt it. I just don't get the hype, sort of like Tyree, but clearly Ben does. I'd rather have Clark Phillips in Round 2 than Christian Gonzalez in the top 15.


Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Ben Brown (PFF) - 12

Fat Curry (Fat Curry Bets) - 5

Draft Day - Under 11.5


Summary: JSN would have been the #1 wr in last year's draft ahead of Wilson (Offensive Rookie of the Year) and Olave (Nominated for Offensive Rookie of the Year.) Just watch JSN's performance vs. Utah in the 2022 Rose Bowl. OSU didn't deserve to win, nor should they have because they didn't look like they cared. Arguably the greatest one-man performance that I have seen is JSN putting on a clinic that game against Clark Phillips.


Broderick Jones

Ben Brown (PFF) - 13

Fat Curry (Fat Curry Bets) - 18

Draft Day - Under 14.5


Summary: I'd say the most athletic tackle in the draft and it doesn't hurt that he just anchored the LT spot on the undefeated dawgs. I think he relies on his athleticism too much and his fundamentals aren't as tight as Paris. However, I'd rather take the nastiness and athleticism of Jones and let him get a year of mental reps if you can afford it as an organization. If you need a starting tackle today, he isn't your guy.


Darnell Wright

Ben Brown (PFF) - 14

Fat Curry (Fat Curry Bets) - Outside #31

Draft Day - Under 17.5


Summary: I personally don't get the hype. I think this is an example of public hype building after hearing a few sound bites such as "5-start 247 ranking" and "great game vs. Will Anderson". All I hear is how Darnell dominated the Bama game and crushed Will Anderson. Watching the highlights, I only found 2-solid examples of this and an additional pull in the run game that was noteworthy. One example was a run where he pushed Will back into the second level. The second example was a pass rush where he moved Will out to his right and away from Hooker. The other plays showed Will was in more a contain scheme given Hooker was known to run. I don't think it last past the Steelers at #17, but I don't agree with it.


Lukas Van Ness

Ben Brown (PFF) - 15

Fat Curry (Fat Curry Bets) - Outside #31

Draft Day - Under 20.5


Summary: Text me if you can name another NFL player that never started a college game but was a Round 1 pick and successful because I cannot. Antonio Gates didn't play in college and is a future HOF'er, but he had to earn it as an undrafted free-agent. GMs have forgotten their wedding day vows and have been behind locked doors for the past month drooling over this kid's biceps and causing a national Kleenex shortage.


Joey Porter Jr.

Ben Brown (PFF) - 16

Fat Curry (Fat Curry Bets) - 29

Draft Day - Under 17.5


Summary: I mean c'mon. I'm even biased with this selection and have to put Joey at #17 to the Steelers. The QB of Penn State's defense stays in Pennsylvania and plays for Sr's former team? Yep, lock it in. Would rather have Forbes if you want my honest opinion but still have Porter as Rd. 1 grade.


Deontae Banks

Ben Brown (PFF) - 17

Fat Curry (Fat Curry Bets) - Outside #31

Draft Day - Under 23.5


Summary: What scares me are players who tape had them as Day 2 grades but their combine instantly boosts them into mid-Round 1 conversation. Combine that with Darrius Heyward-Bey also being a Maryland alumnus and I want no part of Banks. Would rather delay picking a corner and target Ringo, Phillips, Smith or Forbes


Quentin Johnson

Ben Brown (PFF) - 18

Fat Curry (Fat Curry Bets) - 17

Draft Day - Under 15.5


Summary: I am higher on Quentin than Ben, and I think NFL GMs will actually agree with me here. He's my #3 wr behind JSN and Addison, but Quentin is also a completely different type of WR compared to those two and their frames. Being 10th in the nation for yards after catch is appealing to me, and I think a team like the Packers would really consider his deep ball presence combined with Love's arm.


Nolan Smith

Ben Brown (PFF) - 19

Fat Curry (Fat Curry Bets) - 10

Draft Day - Under 13.5


Summary: His torn pectoral muscle hampered his 2022 stats, but I think he provides a blend of LB and Edge potential. It's a weak LB class too, so I could see a team get trigger happy here and make a move early for him rather than be left guessing when Sanders or Campbell go.


Calijah Kancey

Ben Brown (PFF) - 20

Fat Curry (Fat Curry Bets) - 11

Draft Day - Under 21.5


Summary: If you didn't know about Calijah and read his PFF profile and combined it with the fact that he played in the ACC, you'd probably think we were talking about Rudy. Imma guess that Calijah is taller than the CNN wannabe at PFF who is dogging on him for being undersized at 6'1. Want to know who else is 6'1, wears around 280, went to Pitt and is a DT? Aaron Donald you lunatics.


Jordan Addison

Ben Brown (PFF) - 21

Fat Curry (Fat Curry Bets) - 15

Draft Day - Under 15.5


Summary: #2 receiver according to Big Daddy. Only gripe I have is that Max Duggan or Stetson Bennett would be rubbing down their heisman trophy right now if it weren't for Addison transferring to USC and saving Caleb's year. As Daniel Plainview would say, there will be blood if a GM takes Zay Flowers before Jordan Addison.


Emmanuel Forbes

Ben Brown (PFF) - 22

Fat Curry (Fat Curry Bets) - 19

Draft Day - Under 26.5


Summary: I can agree with Ben that Forbes will likely go in this area of the draft. However, I think he should honestly swap positions with Banks and even Gonzalez. Forbes was my #1 CB before the season and I have him at #2 now. This one is for you, The Pirate.


Zay Flowers

Ben Brown (PFF) - 23

Fat Curry (Fat Curry Bets) - Outside #31

Draft Day - Under 24.5


Summary: I'd rather Have Mims, Downs or Dell at the end of Rd. 1 or Rd. 2 than to burn a top-25-pick on a very comparable Zay Flowers. Being so confident in myself, it's worth asking what a GM will do here? My guess is the same GM who is currently avoiding being served divorce papers because his wife found "Lukas Van Ness Biceps NSFW" as the top Google search on the family's laptop will double-down and take Zay as the #1 WR.


Dalton Kincaid

Ben Brown (PFF) - 24

Fat Curry (Fat Curry Bets) - 26

Draft Day - Under 26.5


Summary: I'm totally fine with Kincaid being picked in the 20s as long as Mayer was picked 10 selections prior to this pick. Mayer is the best TE prospect since T.J. Hockenson, and it's a borderline United Nations Crime Against Humanity that Ben has him outside the Rd. 1


Will McDonald IV

Ben Brown (PFF) - 25

Fat Curry (Fat Curry Bets) - Outside #31

Draft Day - Under 30.5


Summary: 2021 was a lot better for Will than 2022. With a bumpier 2022 and him likely being converted to only a speed rusher in the NFL, I would wait until Rd. 2 to take him. Edge Rushers are highly sought after right now in the NFL, so Ben and GMs may be more aligned on this one than myself.


Myles Murphy

Ben Brown (PFF) - 26

Fat Curry (Fat Curry Bets) - 13

Draft Day - Under 17.5


Summary: This is a man who was a top #5-10 pick the entire season. I think he is the better Clemson player in the draft and would bet on his upside if I were a GM.

Bryan Bresee

Ben Brown (PFF) - 27

Fat Curry (Fat Curry Bets) - 22

Draft Day - Under 23.5


Summary: The former #3 high school player in the country behind Bryce Young & Mr. Dr. Pepper was a bit inconsistent for my liking in college. He had a terrible family accident this year, so I discount this year a lot. I still think he's a later Rd. 1 grade and may be the nastiest player in the draft. His strength and attitude could get him instant playing time next year. I see him on a team like the Vikings.


Anton Harrison

Ben Brown (PFF) - 28

Fat Curry (Fat Curry Bets) - Outside #31

Draft Day - Over 31.5


Summary: If you have a "T" next to your name, there's a better chance that Ben Brown gives a Rd. 1 grade than there is Arkansas Football hitting the Under in wins next year and their fans being absolutely perplexed why K.J. Jefferson couldn't deliver. Anton could be the next Lane Johnson for all I care, but the tape and intangibles haven't shown it yet. I don't see 5 "T"s going this year's 1st-round.


Mazi Smith

Ben Brown (PFF) - 29

Fat Curry (Fat Curry Bets) - Outside #31

Draft Day - Outside #31


Summary: Another Athlete who is getting some late love by the Ringling Bros. Circus, also known as PFF. I don't get why you wouldn't hold off and wait for a player like Kobie Turner (Wake Forest) whose stats are multiples of what Mazi has delivered the past few years.


Bijan Robinson

Ben Brown (PFF) - 30

Fat Curry (Fat Curry Bets) - 4

Draft Day - Under 14.5


Summary: I have a lot of gripes with Ben's mock draft, but this one may be the biggest. Bijan Robinson could have sat out this entire year and still been a 1st-round pick. I understand the NFL is becoming more pass happy, but doesn't that actually open up the argument that rookie RBs are now becoming more valuable because you can run them hard and then forego a second contract? I think Bijan has top-10 RB ability today, so why not lock that in on a rookie deal vs. pay a future Joe Mixon 4-year, $48 million. Would not surprise me a team trades up and takes Bijan within the first-15 picks. Ben is flat out wrong here given Clyde Edwards went #32 and was 70% of what Bijan is.


Brian Branch

Ben Brown (PFF) - 31

Fat Curry (Fat Curry Bets) - 25

Draft Day - Under 27.5


Summary: Safeties are becoming less valuable in the NFL today but that doesn't mean we shouldn't see one in Thursday's Rd. 1. Branch is a freak, tying for first in coverage stops and tying for 10th in run stops. He's as close as a plug and play safety that you will get in today's drafts, so I'd rather take a top-25 pick and use it on him than a wild card like Will McDonald IV.

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