Penixism® - The Square Phenomenon Pt. 2 (CFB 2024 Championship Prediction & Player Props)

365 days ago, I coined a philosophical term that would even get Don Draper to call me Big Daddy. The term, "Dugganism®", is my belief that individuals can overanalyze an upcoming event to such an extent that they will end up thinking illogically, thus negating all data and rational logic that they had at their disposal and force themselves to ultimately make the wrong decision. In layman's terms for you public school kids, I believe there is in inflection point between rational thinking (y-axis) and the amount of time (x-axis) you spend looking at something (see the below graph that I didn't create because I'm not a nerd).

Last year's phrase was named after Mr. Max Duggan. If you either remember what happened or were one of the five Big Daddy disciples who read my blog, you'd know that Max had a valiant regular season, a phenomenal Big-12 championship game and a playoff win over the heavily favored Michigan Wolverines. Individually, each aforementioned piece of evidence acted like a cumulonimbus cloud waiting to muddle the sober minds of our media (or rip off a side of an Alaska Airlines Boeing jet). However, when you combined the three together, it made our media as illogical as Big Daddy and Bob Huggins at 7:00pm on a Friday.

Well with what will soon become an annual tradition almost as famous as the Bohemian Grove Annual Meeting, Allen & Cos. Sun Valley Conference or Michael Rubin's White Party (can we find a Vegas future on this name being cancelled), I am updating the name of Big Daddy's philosophy from Dugganism® to Penixism® (partially because I submitted a Wiki page for Dugganism® and got denied).

So what is Penixism? Well it's honestly morphing into a creature more disturbing than Courtney Cox pre- and post-the needle. Firstly, it's an asinine comparison between this Washington team and the 2019 LSU Tigers. Of course, the infallible sports journalists of our decade such as Ari Wasserman have eaten it up (I've seen photos of Ari and he can eat), but when they try describing its merits, you find out the comparison is so poorly baked that you might as well contract Salmonella from it.

We all know Washington has a three-headed monster at WR in Odunze, Polk and McMillan. They also have Penix Jr. who might as well be casted as the next Terminator when the NFL doesn't work out since he's already 70% robot, 20% water and 10% a liar for refusing to admit that he didn't break the plane vs. Penn State in 2020. Other than that, what makes this Washington team similar to the 2019 LSU Tigers? Well if Ari shifted some time from the local drive-thru to the Google Search Console, he would've found that 30 players on LSU's 2019 roster had at least a cup of Folgers in the NFL (see below). To my own surprise, the 2019 LSU team actually had more defensive players selected to the NFL when compared to their offense.

Last nugget that I'll leave you with - Sharp football (https://www.sharpcollegefootball.com/beta-rank) ranks the 2019 LSU Tigers as the best team since 2012. The 2023 Michigan Wolverines and Washington Huskies are #33 and #72, respectively (I just blew your public school minds with that ", respectively").

2019 LSU Tigers who made it to the NFL for any period of time:

Offense (13):

• Joe Burrow

• Clyde Edwards-Helaire

• Tyrion Davis-Price

• Ja'Marr Chase

• Justin Jefferson

• Terrace Marshall Jr.

• Racey McMath

• Stephen Sullivan

• Austin Deculus

• Damien Lewis

• Saahdiq Charles

• Lloyd Cushenberry III

• Ed Ingram

Defense (15):

• Breiden Fehoko

• Rashard Lawrence

• K'Layon Chaisson

• Damone Clark

• Jacob Phillips

• Patrick Queen

• Tory Carter

• Grant Delpit

• Neil Farrell Jr.

• Cordale Flott

• Kristian Fulton

• Tyler Shelvin

• JaCoby Stevens

• Derek Stingley Jr.

• Kary Vincent Jr.

Special Teams (2):

• Cade York

• Blake Ferguson

Secondly, it's the smugness that these Analysts have when they say you have to take Washington moneyline because their offense is just too good....Too good at what? Passing? Great, that's one element of the game. That's like saying Khloe Kardashian is a happy, healthy and confident woman when we all remember her nearly killing Lamar Odom and playing Shrek's body double not too long ago.

I decided to review every team statistic that the NCAA tracks and compare Washington and Michigan. Below are my findings across Offense, Defense, Special Teams and Total Team:

The difference between me and Ari Wasserman tonight (other than one of us having Type-2 diabetes and the other having early onset Type-2 diabetes) is that I'll be using my brain rather than my clogged heart when making my CFB bets. I'll be the first to tell you that I hope Washington wins tonight, but I'm not naïve enough to either believe or bet it. I also hope that Dave Portnoy realizes he needs to give me a job before I write my next blog and leak his phone number and SSN. However, I'm also at the age where I understand what one hopes for and what one gets are usually two different realities.

I truly believe tonight's game is going to be a bit "boring". I think Michigan tries to run the clock as much as possible to limit the possessions that Washington's offense gets. When on defense, I think Michigan only rushes four and drops eight into coverage consistently. I think Michigan shows Penix that the only way they'll let him and his receivers beat Michigan is to march down the field on 10-12 play drives, thus using even more clock.

I said it 365 days ago and I'll say it again now - it's a good thing you all follow Daddy just like the Israelites followed Moses out of Egypt, because I am also going to lead you to the promised land. Just like God speaking to Moses and giving him the 10 Commandments, God has blessed Big Daddy with this Wix platform for another year. Just know the Devil is always lurking. Sometimes he takes the form of a snake, and other times he may take the form of a fat man named Ari who will urge you to take tonight's "David" and tell you why Washington can easily win. Luckily, Daddy's belly is full of bread, mind is somewhat clear and eyes are wide open (thanks to these Zyns).

Yours in slandering college quarterbacks, sports journalists and james franklin until I either go to jail or get a job,

Fat Curry / Big Daddy

#ESKETIT

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1.) Lock of the Game: Michigan -4.5 (-115): 2.5 units. Last year lock of the game saw me put 10 units on the Georgia Bulldogs at -12.5. Since I'm on the bread line currently, I have decided to dial this unit selection back a bit and diversify into some juicier prop bets below. My rationale still remains the same that Michigan is a superior team.

2.) Under 56.5 & Michigan -4.5 (+250 parlay): 1.5 unit. I believe Michigan is going to make this a really boring game, run clock every chance they can get and keep the ball out of Penix's robotic arm. If this proves true, why not take a 1-2 units from the Michigan points play and parlay with the under to juice your odds to +250?

3.) Final Score Prediction: Michigan 34, Washington 20

4.) Blake Corum 150+ rushing yards (+375): 1 unit. The weakness in this game is Washington's defense. I expect Corum to be fed heavy and often, just like Daddy.

5.) Blake Corum to score a td in each half (+325): 1 unit. I think Michigan runs the heck out of the ball tonight to keep the clock churning. Blake should be given the chance to have big night so I'll take these odds.

6.) Ja'lynn Polk & Colston Loveland 50+ receiving yards each (+475): 1 unit. Polk is a walking 50-yd catch waiting to happen, and I think Loveland has the biggest night for any Michigan pass catcher.

7.) Michigan to score points first & Washington to win (+600): 1 unit. Consider this my hedge on the game. If you like Washington tonight, the ML is the way to go vs. the points, so why not take this juiced up bet? It's the best odds you'll get Washington at, even if Michigan does score first? If Michigan happens to not score first, then you can always hit a live line if you desire.

8.) 50+ yard field goal (+750): 1.0 unit. Michigan's kicker is 3-4 from 50+ while Washington's kicker hasn't attempted a 50+ yarder (but is 6-7 from 40-49). I expect team's wanting every point possible, and in a dome, this becomes a lot more realistic.

9.) Any Non-Quarterback to Score a receiving td (+2,000): .50 unit. In Blake Corum I trust.

10.) Any Quarterback to score a receiving touchdown (+7,500): .20 unit. I have a weird feeling that J.J. McCarthy is going to have a receiving td as the 1st td of the game.

11.) Jack Westover, J.J. McCarthy, Colston Loveland First and Last touchdowns (odds range from +1,300 - +2,000): .25 units per piece or .50 unit per player.

12.) Jack Westover Over 26.5 yds and Colston Loveland Over 36.5 yds (-115): 1 unit a piece. Expect the tight ends to be utilized a lot tonight, especially Westover. Expecting Michigan to play deep and force everything in front of them.

13.) Jack Westover Over 2.5 receptions (+100) and Colston Loveland Over 3.5 receptions (+110): 1 unit a piece. See above.

14.) Blake Corum Over 102.5 rushing yards (-115) and over 21.5 rushing attempts (+100). 1 unit a piece. Blake Corum in about 4 hours:

15.) My favorite play of the night: Opening Kickoff to be returned for a touchdown (+10,000): .067 unit: