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Wit or Luck (Year 2)? Testing My Weekly CFB Predictions Against The Public



A philosophical question that I have been asking myself for two years is if betting either takes wit or luck? I had one of the more memorable college football seasons in 2021. It started with me providing 6 weekly picks (3 regular games, 1 LOW, 1 DOW, 1 Triple L) and sending the unwarranted, weekly advice to my friends prior to Saturday kick-offs. What started as a weekly joke slowly turned into a weekly addiction. The more I started to correctly pick games, the more that I wanted to keep giving picks and see if my predictions would hit. By the end of the season, I ended up ~55% across all predictions which included ~70% on my Locks of The Week (LOW), 57% on my Dogs of the Week (DOW) and hit ~33% on my Lookahead Letdown Locks (Triple L). Seeking to repeat the 2021 feat, I decided to spice up the 2022 season and look to answer the philosophical question if betting takes wit or luck. Each week, I asked a different person in my life who knows nothing about College Football to randomly take a side to the games that I bet (excluding the Triple L pick). This random person does not know what side I take, will likely have no clue that James Franklin is a fraud and will definitely have never read this post. I'm as reasonable a guy as Bill Rawls so with adding this level of randomness, I vowed to respect the results of this test. For example, if I bet NMSU -6.5 vs. UMass, I'll look my girlfriend in the eyes and treat her like a Prisoner of War demanding she says "NMSU or UMass" without hesitation. The first answer she gives me is her bet, and I repeat this harassment until I force ~6 picks out of her.


My selfish hope was that this series would demonstrate the hours of toil that I put into searching for a betting edge on MACtion Tuesday while at work are found to be an effective use of company time. However, I found in 2022 that the public had my number. I don't what it was about asking fiances of friends about College Football, but I got taken to smackdonalds week over week. Coming into week 0 of the '22 CFB season, I set out on my redemption tour. I have updated last year's format where I will provide 3 regular games, 1 over / under game, 1 LOW, 1 DOW and 1 Triple L per week. The rules are that a LOW pick must be against the spread and can warrant no less than 2 units because it's a bigger lock than James Franklin losing to OSU. A DOW pick is 1 unit on an underdog that is +3 or greater against the spread, and additionally, you can wager up to 1 unit on the moneyline. The Triple L is an underdog that is a big longshot at +7 or greater and you take the moneyline, not the points. This is a wager of usually 1/3 a unit since it typically hits every ~4 weeks. I will now have my public contestant choose a Triple L team. The 3 regular games are 3 bets against the spread and can be up to 1 unit either by taking the points or giving the points. Lastly, I'll include one over / under game, so in total, there will be 7 weekly picks. I will keep this blog as a living document and add my weekly picks to it along with providing a tally on my predictions compared to the public. May the best binary win. #ESKETIT Side note: It's worth mentioning a few betting rules that I encourage others to consider and ultimately follow:

  • Leave Room For Jesus When Making Parlays: The parlay payoffs will always tempting, especially when you think you're going 6/6 (in my instance). Odds are never enough to warrant the risk, and you will end up printing more money for your bookie than Jerome Powell is printing for America

  • Pace yourself: College Football is a long-season. There's going to be down weeks, but you have to maintain discipline, put emotions to the side and slowly climb out of the hole over the following week(s). The last thing that you want to do is start in a hole and make it a grave after you go all in on Hawaii to cover -3 vs. Wyoming

  • Have a game plan: Come into each Saturday with a plan of who you are going to take and the units you're betting; if you wait until the last minute, that's when people tend to get sloppy in their bets and amounts wagered

  • Trust your eyes, not Stanford Steve: Stay away from Stanford Steve, as he's the spawn of Satan and getting the hands from Daddy if I ever see him in a Home Depot. But moral of the story is have some self-confidence, trust your eyes and the hours that you put into watching football. Don't start second-guessing yourself and start googling free sites giving predictions on what teams are going to cover (except for Fat Curry's Bets, those are locks)

  • Treat Betting Like Individual Stock Picking: The greatest stock pickers of the 21st Century (Buffett, Belfort, Curry) didn't become the greatest by picking the largest companies in the world that all Analysts review daily. No, they became the greatest by taking bets on overlooked assets that had a bit of hair on them at first glance, but with some love, they were as beautiful as October 23, 2021 when James Franklin lost in 9-OTs to Illinois at not so happy valley. This means STAY AWAY FROM TOP-25 MATCHUPS. When Saturdays roll around, I want you to forget about any games that College GameDay contemplated going to and focus on the games with teams that either have 1) a minimum of two directions in their names and still don't provide reader's a clue where the college is located or 2) colleges with names that sound auto-generated in NCAA Football 14 (e.g. Northwestern State vs. Faulkner)

Speaking of Faulkner (check the below article, photo and cleat): 61-Year-Old, Alan Moore, Kicks His Way Into College Football History (https://abcnews.go.com/US/61-year-alan-moore-kicks-college-football-history/story?id=14787816) Week 0 CFB Predictions (Saturday through Thursday): Fat Curry vs. His Girlfriend ("Baerito")





Fat Curry / Big Daddy:

Lock of the week (LoW): NMSU -6.5 (-115) @ 2 Units

Dog of the Week (DoW): Ohio +3.5 and +115 ML @ 1 Unit each

Lockahead Letdown Lock of the Week (Triple L): Nebraska +210 ML @ 1/3 Unit

Game #1: UTEP ML -125 @ 1 Unit

Game #2: Utah -4.5 (-115) @ 1 Unit

Game #3: UCF vs. Kent State -37 (-115) @ 1 Unit

Over / Under Points: USC vs. San Jose State O 66.5 (-115) @ 1 Unit

Baerito:

Lock of the week (LoW): NMSU -6.5 (-115) @ 2 Units

Dog of the Week (DoW): SDSU -3.5 and -140 ML @ 1 Unit each

Lockahead Letdown Lock of the Week (Triple L): Nebraska +210 ML @ 1/3 Unit

Game #1: UTEP ML -125 @ 1 Unit

Game #2: Florida +4.5 (-115) @ 1 Unit

Game #3: UCF vs. Kent State +37 (-115) @ 1 Unit

Over / Under Points: USC vs. San Jose State U 66.5 (-115) @ 1 Unit

Cumulative Fat Curry Record: 0-0-0; 0 units

Cumulative "The Public" Record: 0-0-0; 0 units

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